Peer-Reviewed Journal Details
Mandatory Fields
Esposito, FP;Cummins, M
2016
August
Journal of Forecasting
Multiple Hypothesis Testing of Market Risk Forecasting Models
Published
2 ()
Optional Fields
SIMULTANEOUS CONFIDENCE SETS GENERALIZED ERROR RATES CONDITIONAL HETEROSKEDASTICITY STATIONARY BOOTSTRAP DENSITY FORECASTS REALITY CHECK MANAGEMENT INFERENCE VARIANCE
35
381
399
Extending previous risk model backtesting literature, we construct multiple hypothesis testing (MHT) with the stationary bootstrap. We conduct multiple tests which control for the generalized confidence level and employ the bootstrap MHT to design multiple comparison testing. We consider absolute and relative predictive ability to test a range of competing risk models, focusing on value-at-risk and expected shortfall (ExS). In devising the test for the absolute predictive ability, we take the route of recent literature and construct balanced simultaneous confidence sets that control for the generalized family-wise error rate, which is the joint probability of rejecting true hypotheses. We implement a step-down method which increases the power of the MHT in isolating false discoveries. In testing for the ExS model predictive ability, we design a new simple test to draw inference about recursive model forecasting capability. In the second suite of statistical testing, we develop a novel device for measuring the relative predictive ability in the bootstrap MHT framework. The device, which we coin multiple comparison mapping, provides a statistically robust instrument designed to answer the question: Which model is the best model?' Copyright (c) 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
HOBOKEN
0277-6693
10.1002/for.2381
Grant Details