Improving the rate of progression among students, particularly first year undergraduates, has long been identified as a challenge for the majority of third level institutions. Since 2010, DCU has applied a single factor determinant, student performance at the conclusions of 1st semester examinations, as a means of identifying students at risk of academic non-progression. This case study outlines the initiative to date, reviews the outcomes for students based on the current model, and discusses options for the application of new data to this model that will allow DCU to identify students at risk of non-progression earlier in the academic year.